Alliance of Sahel States
Overview (BLUF)
The Alliance of Sahel States (AES; French: Alliance des États du Sahel) is a mutual defence and political solidarity pact established in September 2023 by the military juntas of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger — three West African states that experienced coups between 2020 and 2023. In January 2025, the three states announced the AES’s transformation into the Confederation of Sahel States (CES), deepening political and economic integration. The AES/CES represents the most significant institutional rupture in West African security architecture since the Cold War, directly challenging ECOWAS (Economic Community of West African States) as the regional hegemon.
The AES is the political superstructure of the “juntas arc” — three states pivoting away from France and Western security partnerships toward Russia (Africa Corps), bilateral mining deals with Russia and China, and a sovereign-nationalist discourse framing Western security cooperation as neocolonial. Each AES member has expelled French/EU military missions and redirected partnerships toward Russia (Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger) and, to a lesser degree, China.
Key Facts
| Dimension | Detail |
|---|---|
| Founded | September 2023 (Liptako-Gourma Charter) |
| Members | Mali (CNSP junta), Burkina Faso (MPSR junta), Niger (CNSP junta) |
| Successor | Confederation of Sahel States (CES) announced January 2025 |
| ECOWAS relationship | All three states suspended from ECOWAS (2023); AES formally withdrew January 2024 |
| France relationship | French troops expelled (Mali 2022, Burkina Faso 2023, Niger 2023); French embassies under pressure |
| Russia relationship | Wagner/Africa Corps presence in all three states; Russian military cooperation agreements |
| Jihadist context | All three states face active jihadist insurgencies (JNIM, Islamic State Sahel Province) |
Strategic Implications
The AES represents a structural challenge to both ECOWAS and Western Africa security architecture:
- ECOWAS fracture: ECOWAS threatened military intervention after Niger coup (2023) but failed to act; AES withdrawal from ECOWAS weakens the bloc’s coherence and enforcement capacity
- French exit: France’s near-total security withdrawal from the Sahel (Operation Barkhane terminated, Serval legacy ended) represents the most significant French strategic defeat in Africa since decolonisation
- Russian entry: Africa Corps / Wagner successor presence fills the security vacuum in all three AES states; this is the most geographically concentrated Russian military footprint outside the former Soviet Union since the Cold War
- Jihadist paradox: Despite anti-jihadist justifications for each coup, territorial losses to JNIM and Islamic State Sahel Province have accelerated in all three states since the juntas took power
Assessment (High): The AES/CES is a durable geopolitical realignment, not a temporary junta formation. The mutual defence pact is credible (Niger threatened to invoke it during ECOWAS confrontation), the Russia relationship is deepening, and the economic logic of pooled sovereignty with access to Russian political cover reinforces cohesion.
Key Connections
- Africa Corps — Russian military partner in AES states
- JNIM — primary jihadist threat in AES territory
- Islamic State Sahel Province — secondary jihadist threat; competitor with JNIM
- ECOWAS — regional body from which AES states withdrew
- Sahel — Regional Conflict System: Strategic Assessment — primary assessment
- Russia — primary external security partner
Sources
- Liptako-Gourma Charter (AES Founding Document, September 2023). Confidence: High — primary legal instrument.
- ICG, The Alliance of Sahel States: A New Security Architecture? (2024). Confidence: High.
- ACLED, Sahel Conflict Data (ongoing). Confidence: High for territorial/casualty documentation.
- Africa Center for Strategic Studies, Sahel Security Reports (2023–2025). Confidence: High.