Ethiopia — Tigray Crisis Tracker
Status: Active monitoring. Full strategic analysis in Ethiopia — Tigray War and the Fragile Peace: Strategic Assessment.
Key Indicators to Track
- ENDF deployment posture in north-western Tigray and along the Eritrean border
- Pretoria Agreement compliance by TPLF/ENDF
- Amhara Fano militia activity and integration status
- Humanitarian corridor access: WFP/ICRC access reports
- OLA (Oromo Liberation Army) operations in Oromia region
Current Assessment
Assessment (Medium): The Pretoria Agreement (November 2022) halted active combat between ENDF and TPLF but has not resolved underlying political disputes over Amhara territorial claims (Western Tigray) or disarmament timelines. The parallel Amhara conflict (Fano militia) remains active and represents a distinct second front.